Aug 25 2008

Going for Gold

Published by paull.randt at 4:50 pm under Uncategorized

The Chinese team did it—they won the gold medal count. The final count has China with 51 golds out of a possible 302, USA 36, Russia 23, Great Britain 19 and Germany 16 (click here for a table of the medal results). Not only did China win the most gold medals in the 2008 Games, they won the most golds of any country since the Soviet Union won 55 in the 1988. The last time the USA won more than 51 golds, it was at the 1984 Los Angeles Games, which the Soviets boycotted. During the Olympics, the medal-count obsession became pervasive in Beijing and was a constant cause for speculation.

American women's soccer team on the top of the podium in Worker's Stadium

American women's soccer team on the top of the podium in Worker's Stadium

 

Before the Games, there were many hypotheses about the medal outcome. The accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers predicted that China would win 88 total (not just gold) medals to America’s 87. That the firm, which also provides auditing services to the Games, would pick the auspicious number eight for their clients hardly seems coincidental. Later Daniel Johnson and Ayfer Ali of Colorado College calculated that China would win 44 golds to the USA’s 33. The New York Times reported that large bets could be placed at bookies and online on the medal count outcome. The odds were on China before the Games began.

 

China’s goal was to top the USA in the gold medal count. The USA has won the gold medal count since Atlanta in 1996. To overcome the perennial champions, the Chinese launched “Project 119” in July 2001. The idea of “Project 119” was to build China’s athletic programs in traditionally weak areas, such as track-and-field and swimming. The name comes from the 119 (by 2008, the number had risen to 122) gold medals in those disciplines China identified as events they could, but do not usually, win. Ultimately, they won fewer than half of Project 119’s events, but the performance was sufficient to dominate the gold medal tally.

 

What was the success of Project 119? China lost some old faithfuls, but had some unexpected victories. The major upsets were: Chinese shooter Du Li failed to medal in the 10m air rifle, the first event of the Games; Americans Nastia Liukin and Shawn Johnson finished one and two ahead of China’s Yang Yilin in the women’s gymnastics individual all-around; hurdler Liu Xiang withdrew from the men’s 110m event; and Zhou Luxin lost to Australian Matthew Mitcham in the men’s diving 10m platform—the only diving event the Chinese did not win.

 

But there were more surprise wins than losses, including: Liu Zige broke the world record for China in the women’s 200m butterfly swim; the women’s four took gold in rowing; Chinese women won four of seven weightlifting classes; and shooter Du Li redeemed herself with a gold in the women’s 50m rifle three positions event. And the list goes on.

 

China delivered golds as promised, but only golds. China is one of only two countries with over 10 total medals to have over 50% of those medals be gold. The other is Jamica, with 6 golds out of 11 total. China won 100 medals to America’s 110. But the USA is the only country that places importance on the total medal count. In China, only gold matters. The official Beijing Olympic site ranks countries by number of gold medals, whereas the New York Times ranks countries by total medals. Chinese TV played and replayed medal ceremonies with Chinese champions—but did not even once air those ceremonies in which Chinese athletes did not win gold (to my knowledge, and I watched a lot of coverage).

 

We put a great deal of pressure on athletes to win gold. I say “we” because, if we are honest with ourselves, Americans place as much importance on the gold medal as do the Chinese. Both Americans and Chinese use the Olympic medal count (however you count) as a display of national power in which athletes become proxy soldiers in a nonviolent conflict. In this fantasy, victory on the podium becomes a validation of one political and economic system over another—this was even truer when the Soviets competed. Following from this, a silver medal means that there is another national system that is ever so slightly better. As a taxi driver put it, “A gold medal is for winners, the silver medal is for not-winners.”

Michael Phelps takes gold - but I don't remember which number this was

Michael Phelps takes gold - but I don't remember which number this was

Fortunately, since the USA won more total medals and China won more golds, both countries can rest happy.

One Response to “Going for Gold”

  1. Daniel Johnsonon 25 Aug 2008 at 6:42 pm

    Thanks so much for mentioning our work in this context. Ayfer Ali and I actually developed the original Johnson-Ali model in 2000, but it seemed interesting to apply it again this year. It held up again, with a 0.93 correlation between predictions and actual medal counts.

    And you didn’t even mention that I earned my PhD from Yale’s very own Economics Department!

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