Aug 27 2008
China’s Post-Olympic Prospects
A reporter once asked former-Communist Premier of China Zhou Enlai what he thought was the impact of the 1789 French Revolution, to which he replied: “It is too soon to tell.”
We are all in a similar boat vis-à-vis the impact of the Olympic Games on China. The Games, which were incredible to attend and which the Chinese hosted almost flawlessly, ended four days ago. The city has slowly drained of festivity and tourists. The Coca-Cola pavilion in the mall The Place has been dismantled to its metal skeleton and the red and blue BOCOG (Beijing Organizing Committee of the Olympic Games) volunteers have evaporated by the hundreds of thousands. Never mind that the Paralympic Games are about to begin, there is a clear sense that the Olympic Spirit has come and gone. But absent perspective, we can still ask: what might be China’s post-Olympic prospects?
First of all, what does it mean for China to be “post-Olympic?” My family arrived in Beijing in the summer of 2001; right around the time that Beijing won its Olympic bid. Starting then, there was a gradual building towards August 2008. Each time I returned to Beijing, new civic projects had been completed, more information about the Games had been publicized, and more posters, buildings and stores bore BOCOG’s Olympic branding. Everyone and everything in the city has been so focused on the Games for the last seven years that it became difficult to see past August 2008.
Then, while riding in a taxi yesterday, a radio personality gave the date as “the third day after the Olympics.” Post-Olympic time has officially begun. It seems that the calendar has been reset and Chinese time is now counted anno post ludus, much as the counting of time began again under new Chinese dynasties, or during the French Revolution. Now all of the energy, innovation and—perhaps most importantly—capital that was devoted to and generated by the Olympics will either be let loose or refocused on China’s next goal.
The remains of a neglected aquatic sports facility next to the Worker's Stadium
The Chinese government spent an estimated $2 billion on Olympic venues and infrastructure, but that is not counting the billions invested into making post-Olympic Beijing a world-class city. For instance, the new China Central Television (CCTV) tower, designed by Koolhaus and costing $780 million, is effectively a trophy celebrating Beijing’s recent development. But what use does Beijing have for the Olympic infrastructure now? Apartments in the Olympic Village, which housed 16,000 athletes and press, are being sold off at up to $1 million each—which will potentially cause the bottom to fall out of Beijing’s luxury housing market.
The Olympic Media Village apartments, now for sale.
Of course, China is not without upcoming major events into which it can pour its resources. To name just two, Hong Kong will host the 2009 East Asian Games and in 2010, the World Expo will be in Shanghai. Perhaps these events will keep China looking forward.
What about China’s post-Olympic prospects with regards to pollution? As I noted in a previous post, the air in Beijing was remarkably cleaner during the Games than normal, but the restrictions put in place to clean the air will not remain in force for long. According to Chinese radio, the license-plate-based limitations on cars ends August 28; the temporary closure of factories and construction will end shortly after the Paralympic Games in September. No doubt the air will quickly revert to its pre-Games poor quality.
And with regards to press and media freedoms—well, it is unclear whether China made any “progress” on these fronts during the Games. There have been lots of reports on this subject, but I have a personal anecdote: my family’s television receives CNN via satellite. We rarely have any problems with the channel, but it recently froze on a single frame for upwards of four hours. It just so happens that the frame it froze on was the announcement that the IOC is investigating the supposedly underage Chinese gymnasts. I understand that this only happened to my family’s TV, but I cannot explain why or how. Although I am not sure this was an act of censorship, I am suspect.
Picture of my frozen TV screen
If I sound pessimistic, it is because I am. In the West, the 2008 Olympics were touted as having the potential to stimulate further reform and opening in China, but despite the radical shift that post-Olympic time might suggest, I think Beijing is headed for more of the same: rapid and unstable economic growth, gradual reforms with an overall trend towards free markets and property rights, and continued control of individuals for the good of the collective. Not all bad, by any means, but a good bit short of what the West dared hope.
Then again, it is too soon to tell.
A sign outside a public park exhorting people to: "Welcome olympic games with joyfulness and construct a harmonious society." Signs like this were pervasive.
A public sculpture of the Olympic mascots, the "fu-wa" or "Friendlies"
The American men's water polo team playing Hungary for the gold, but taking silver
The American women after beating Brazil 1-0 for the gold in soccer